TnP columnist John Ryan explores how the weather impacts retail performance – and whether its more excuse than explanation when it comes to underperformance
It doesn’t really matter where you are in the UK (the Outer Hebrides and the Shetlands notwithstanding), the early summer has been warm, at the very least. At the time of writing, we have got through a third ‘heatwave’ and the usual flash flood and thunderstorm alerts have been issued. So far, so abnormal (although long periods of high temperatures are set to be the new “normal” apparently).
But unusual weather patterns do provide retailers with excuses. ‘Too hot’ (usually uttered by those who’ve got too much of the wrong thing in-store when the sun comes out), ‘too cold’ (outdoor activity toys springs to mind) or ‘too wet’ (nobody’s going out, so I’m not shifting those outdoor toys) – there’s always a good reason why the stock that you have is, unaccountably, not selling.
Yet the buyer’s endless quest for the right thing at the right time is what this all boils down to, and as has probably always been the case, it’s matter of moderation. The Goldilocks spot when it comes to choosing what next to put on the shelves is the Holy Grail; neither too much, nor too little in all things.
“Get stuff done and make your store the sort of place that shoppers will want to visit, irrespective of whether the sun is cracking the flags or a horde of brass monkeys is heading down the high street”
Yet how to avoid the siren call of the brand sales team or those lists that purport to inform you of the top-selling items for winter 2025 or the early part of 2026? It’s always worth looking at who is producing this kind of information and working out whether they too have some kind of axe to grind. A healthy dose of scepticism should be an essential requirement for any wannabe buyer and the ability to maintain a poker face when challenged with the business of selecting a range for your store will probably come in handy.
But what happens if, with the best will in the world, the toys that you have chosen just don’t sell? At this point it’s perhaps worth noting the sage words of a former boss, a head buyer, who informed your correspondent: “At the beginning of a season I can tell you exactly how many items I will sell, I just can’t tell you what price I’ll sell them at.”
This is a considered way of saying that there is a price for everything and for shoppers the notion of a picking up a ‘bargain’ is oil poured on a shopkeeper’s troubled waters. There is, of course, the little matter of profit and too many markdowns equates, ultimately, to the end of business. But those who know what they’re doing are unlikely to be faced by this, even if margins are slimmer than might be hoped.
Back to the weather, however. What should the canny toy retailer be doing when caught on the hop by the hottest early summer period for 40 or 50 years (or whatever the comparison being drawn may be)? The answer is to keep cool.
This is not a matter of being level-headed, although this is useful, but make your store the kind of place that shoppers may wish to visit even when it’s 35C outside. Fans, portable air-conditioning units and ice creams are all fit for purpose, and if you can combine cooler in-store temperatures than outside and couple this with free popsicles or similar, then there’s a fair chance that you may be able to sell a few things at a better price, rather than hanging on to them and hoping things will improve.
The chances are they will not, as the idea that as ‘one door shuts, another closes’, tends to be the way of the retail world unless you’re prepared to be a little proactive and if this means keeping your store cool, make it so. All of this comes at a cost, but bear in mind that behind every delivery that is made to your store there’s another waiting to be delivered. Space and funds are finite and having things piling up owing to a spell of inclement weather will never be the way forward.
Get stuff done and make your store the sort of place that shoppers will want to visit, irrespective of whether the sun is cracking the flags or a horde of brass monkeys is heading down the high street. There will always be something that can be effected that will make your store a haven for the toy shopper – and for the grown-ups, a pop-up café serving iced coffee or hot chocolate (depending on the season) will probably go a long way towards keeping things moving.
The next time then that you happen to glance at the business pages of a paper or online media, and notice a retail CEO is blaming the weather for poor results, it might be worth considering whether this is little more than a time-honoured excuse for a job done badly. It’s usually the case that when this happens the share prices of the biggest retailers, those that are listed on the stock market, takes a hammering as the impression gained is that poor management (stock and in-store) is to blame.
In fairness, we are on the cusp of the great summer holiday departure as I write this, and warm weather should a blessing. How many times have you wandered into a store in search of some beachwear or maybe a beach tennis set and found that it’s sold out and that you are confronted by an offer for early autumn. Some things never change, but if you’re a shopkeeper, it means you’ve managed to clear summer and on to the next thing. All good.
