Premium-priced lines, licensed collectibles, and Needoh move the needle – as kidults continue to reshape the market
The US toy industry is off to strong start in 2026, with 13 per cent year-on-year dollar growth to the end of April, according to Circana.
Continued growth of Pokémon trading cards and the breakout craze for sensory Needoh lines drove the biggest gains, while kidult spend accounted for yet more of the overall market’s growth.
“The toy industry’s promising start to 2026 reflects a unique intersection of resilient demand and evolving consumer behaviour,” said Kristen McLean, VP of Client Insights for Circana’s Entertainment Knowledge Group. “Growth is being driven by enthusiasm for trading cards, collectibles, and licensed properties across age groups, reinforcing toys as a bright spot despite broader pressure on discretionary spending.”
Seven of Circana’s 11 supercategories posted dollar gains, with the majority posting growth in dollars, units, and ASP, according to Circana’s Retail Tracking Service. The top-performing segments were games and puzzles (+39%), driven by Pokémon; explorative and other toys (+36%), led by Major League Baseball (MLB) and NeeDoh; and building sets (+20%), driven by LEGO Botanicals and Formula 1 – collectively highlighting the outsized role of collectibles and hobby-oriented play.
In general, toy consumption continues to be driven by adult recipients: consumers aged 18 and up accounted for 35 per cent of total industry growth through April. That means a shift towards more mid-tier and premium price bands, while entry-level price points are under pressure, Circana said.
This growth is being amplified by the influence of social media and emerging commerce platforms. In just two years, TikTok Shop has grown to represent 1 per centof total retail sales and 3 per cent of e-commerce sales, with toys, hobbies, and collectibles ranking as the third-largest category on the platform, according to Circana’s Social Commerce Tracking data.
This is most acutely reflected in viral products like NeeDoh and similar squishy formats, Kristen said: “Strong retail performance and social-driven discovery are transforming sensory toys from a niche segment into a scalable growth category.”
